Finalist
Student Team 13392: Nicholas Ceaser Taliikwa (Team lead, Kampala International University-Western Campus), Christine Ampereza (Moyo General Hospital), Splendour Masinde (Kampala International University-Western Campus), and Sandrah Namirimu (Kampala International University-Western Campus)
Effective empiric antibiotic therapy is crucial for managing severe bacterial infections, especially when microbiological identification and antimicrobial susceptibility testing (AST) results are unavailable or delayed. In such cases, clinicians depend on empiric treatment guidelines based on historical susceptibility patterns. However, antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is constantly evolving, which can diminish the effectiveness of recommended empiric regimens. While surveillance systems offer valuable information on pathogen-specific resistance trends, they do not directly indicate when common empiric treatments become unreliable.
A significant challenge is the increasing prevalence of the ESKAPE pathogens— Enterococcus faecium, Staphylococcus aureus, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Acinetobacter baumannii, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Enterobacter spp. which are among the main causes of difficult-to-treat healthcare-associated infections and are prioritized for AMR surveillance and intervention.
We propose developing an Empiric Treatment Reliability Index (ETRI), a new metric that converts antimicrobial susceptibility data into a clinically meaningful measure of empiric treatment adequacy. Instead of focusing on individual antibiotic susceptibility, ETRI estimates the likelihood that at least one antibiotic within a recommended empiric treatment remains effective against the target pathogen population in a specific setting and time period.
Using the Pfizer ATLAS surveillance database, which tracks global trends in antibiotic susceptibility and emerging resistance patterns, we will assess ETRI trajectories for key ESKAPE pathogens and compare trends between high-income countries and low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The project will also create an interactive ETRI dashboard showing country-specific ETRI scores, temporal trends, future projections of ETRI under different resistance scenarios, and pathogen-specific contributions to declining treatment reliability.
This research will enable more effective empiric therapy choices, enhance antimicrobial stewardship, support public health surveillance, and inform updates to treatment guidelines. By turning resistance surveillance data into a practical clinical decision-support tool, the project strives to improve patient outcomes and bolster health system readiness against the evolving threat of AMR.